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There are only two weeks to go before playoffs. I was seventeen games under 500 at a few weeks ago, but then Joe Johnson came back and caught absolute fire, before tapering off. Steph Curry got healthy also, and I was able to take advantage of some good waiver pickups to compensate for a lackluster draft. I traded “The Poster Child” Blake Griffin for Joe Johnson, a trade that has benefited both parties. I also traded Jrue Holiday (4th PG) for the since released Landry Fields, who with my adding of DeJuan Blair, Amir Johnson, has become obsolete.

Tim Duncan, Troy Murphy, Ron Artest, John Salmons are my most conspicuous draft picks that didn’t pan out. Fortunately, I have had a solid year with free agents — Nick Young, Tyson Chandler, JJ Hickson, and lastly, most improved player of the year candidate, Dorell Wright, have kept me in the thick of things. I won’t win my division, but I should be in as a lower seed and can match up with the big boys. Hoping I didn’t peak too early. Derrick Rose has emerged as a bona fide MVP candidate and as the 31st player selected in my draft has easily superseded that relatively modest draft position. I am extremely guard heavy and using a patchwork frontline to win percentages and attempt to stay competitive in blocks and rebounds. This is a far cry from my dominating frontcourt last season, resulting in a heart wrenching loss in the semi’s due to tiebreaker.

I will definitely go into the playoffs as an underdog. I do have a favorable schedule: Nash, 2 Bulls, 2 Warriors, 2 Spurs, Chandler and Joe Johnson as my core players. I have to win close games but no style points!

Okay, so I go 1 for 2. My three-peat bid is very much alive and I know On Any Given Sunday, anything is possible, but I very much like my chances to take home the title again. I will post my and my opponent’s respective lineups before the Steelers/Panthers game.

–This is a repeat of last year’s title game. Is this good or bad for the league? We have only six keepers per team for a twenty-seven man roster, so the turnover is pretty high. However, when you have a rock solid core, it should keep you elite for a few season. Getting Arian Foster 12th overall in the re-draft ws the embodiment of “The Rich getting Richer” for me.

On a more disappointing note, I was bounced out of the New Jersey Fantasy Football League semifinals in a very unsatisfying fashion. The writing was on the wall all week about me playing short-handed, with no Orton or Shaun Hill. The NFL is a quarterback-driven league and this particular fantasy football league is no different. I just couldn’t close such an enormous gap and the final difference represented an average score for a QB in the league. I kick myself for all the Kitna’s, and Kerry Collins’s I bypassed for low impact defensive players. It’s a valuable learning lesson but the cost was pretty steep. While I would have been a huge dog in the finals, at least I would have gotten there if I didn’t make a rookie mistake of roster mismanagement. It’s more callow than hubris on my end, so I am motivated to come back and advance further next season!

With news that Tim Tebow is starting tomorrow at Oakland, my improbable 11-3 season in a dynasty league looks to come to a screeching halt. The lesson I learned is not trusting fool’s gold. Orton’s mostly nondescript NFL career has provided some big games, but it was ill-advised on my end to have no viable backup (Stafford, S. Hill) I traded Eli and Bradford (to get Hillis and Stafford) and did not see the rainy day coming. I am hoping I am wrong, but it will definitely take a fantasy miracle to advance to the championship game.

I do not foresee a big game from Tebow at all, as much fun as he is to root for as a football player and human being, this is not a good situation for fantasy success at all. Oakland should mercilessly pound the Broncos on the ground. While it won’t be 59-14, the Silver and Black should have no issue imposing their will on a Denver team who has packed it in. You have to likewise feel for the Brandon Lloyd owners who have cashed in most of the season and now will see “reality set it”.

I must say it is extremely therapeutic and peaceful knowing I have clinched the No. 2 seeds in both of my leagues and the only issue still up in the air is who my first playoff opponent will be in each respective league. It is an enviable position, yes. I have been “in the game” long enough to know not to be complacent with your lineup decisions and maintaining roster depth, nor divagate from the ultimate goal of winning the league championship by “taking the week off”. Here’s my approach and outlook headed into the postseason:

In NJFFL, my rookie year in a dynasty football league, I have been pleasantly successful given the status as an expansion team and the glut of quality teams at the top. However, fueled by the fortune of the first pick in the expansion draft (Chris Johnson), I have parlayed my first season into a 9-3 campaign headed into this week. My key pickups Kyle Orton and Peyton Hillis (via trade) has mitigated the underwhelming play of rookie bust Ryan Mathews and decent but unspectacular receiving corps (Jennings, Mason, Knox, MSW, Carolina S. Smith, etc). I am quite lucky to be 9-3 but I definitely have an above average team and will implement my experience into better diligence and preparation for next season and beyond.

The key mistakes i have made are: mismanagement of the limited waivers and not having full command of the scoring system. These are the weaknesses for me to focus on for 2011.

Goals: I wanted to win the division, I have done just that. As an expansion, while I always play to win, it was too lofty to expect to win the title, but that being said, I have come this far, so just going to enjoy the ride now. I am happy to just appear in the championship game at this point.

In my keeper league, with probable consensus No. 1 pick Arian Foster falling to me at No. 12 in the free agent draft, I have a stupendous opportunity to three-peat. Despite being the points leader by a considerable margin over the next contender, I am locked in the No. 2 seed. I am loaded at every position except for WR3 and will rotate Hartline, Mason, Gibson, Britt, and Royal for the Week 15 semifinals. With three fantastic backs in Foster, C. Johnson, and S. Jackson and Orton being a top 5 QB this season, I am extremely confident about another championship run. I am going to backup myself at every position (i.e. kicker, defensive back) and just pick the best WR3 to my ability. Every other position sets itself and no thinking or second guessing will be involved.

Key mistake: ignored the dearth of quality wide receiver depth for far too long, and ended up with too many mediocre options.

Goal: Anything short of a championship will be a colossal letdown.

If someone wants to hand you a $100 bill,  whether it’s a stranger or someone you know intimately, you would probably question their motive, right? What if there are no strings attached, and you really can just take it and do with it as you please, would you? Some people will take the money in the blink of an eye, and that’s okay. No one is harmed here, and while it is an unusual happenstance, it’s not out of the realm of possibility in life that some people are that kind and generous. However, many other people in society would question such an unsolicited act: “What’s in it for them (the other party)? What’s the catch? Why do I get to be so lucky?”

In fantasy sports, what if someone offers you an extremely lopsided trade in your favor without any external factors (i.e. collusion), should you except? If Randy W. wants to offer you Chris Johnson for Ryan Torain and Greg Jennings, should you take it? Sure the league trade veto system will have a lot to say about it, but let’s say they pass it. Should you “feel bad” about taking what you feel is an unwarranted coup?

Now this is different than ripping someone off, getting the best of a trade is part of the game. I never intend to fleece someone, but if I do, I never feel bad about it. I acquired Justin Verlander for Edinson Volquez last season from Sirheadro in the Super Keeper League, and while I clearly got the best of it, I don’t feel bad because it’s a part of the game. We are all men/adults and Neal has gotten the best of me with Robinson Cano AND Matt Kemp for Ryan Braun. I take my lumps and just move on, and don’t regret what seem to be the best decision at the time and near future.

If you truly care about your league, you would not only worry about how it benefits of your team but the league. Sure you now have CJ2K and that’s wonderful, but if the other owners are ticked off, chances are your league won’t last very long. If Randy’s track record is one of being an astute and crafty owner, it would raise even more eyebrows. Is he planning on fleeing? Has he become disillusioned with the league and fantasy sports in general? Sure, it’s none of your business what he’s thinking as long as you are not “breaking the rules” and you are not. You should be allowed to go about your business as long as the league passes the trade, and I am perfectly fine with that rationale.

On the other hand, I am accustomed to being the commissioner of my leagues and have been since 2002, so I am always gauging the overall welfare of the leagues and how much enjoyment my league mates and I derive from them. Whether I like it or not, I have to know what the league thinks about the trade. If I am deemed the “bad guy” and always screw owners in deals, no one is going to want to play and they may suspect things are not always on the up and up, even when they are. The league veto has only so many checks and balances and there are always ways to circumvent them. It’s simply not fun if things are not seemingly copacetic, and while I wouldn’t be doing anything wrong, I would turn down the trade in this instance, because I don’t feel like I earned it. If I don’t earn it, it’s not fun or fulfilling for me to be in the league.

The bottom line is that while it is not an indictment to accept the trade that seems too good to be true, it’s important to look at other factors. You must have the grace to turn it down or accept it and expect some backlash from the league. If the league passes the trade, but it doesn’t pass your own BS detector, and you ultimately win because of the deal, was it worth it??

This is one of the more middling fantasy matchups for the 2010 season’s NFL week. Raiders/Titans feature one marquee name and no one needs to be told to start 2009 rushing champ and consensus 2010 No. 1 pick Chris Johnson. Your expectations for him, per usual, should be very high. 120 yards and 40 receiving and 2 TD’s are well within play here. Yes, the Raiders have improved their defense by jettisoning solid but unspectacular Kirk Morrison and adding two great looking rookies in Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston, and veteran run stopper Kamerion Wimbley. Still having one of the top two cornerbacks in the league in Nmandi certainly doesn’t hurt either. As much progress has been made to shore up the unit, we are not exactly talking about the 2000 Ravens defense here. 25 points from CJ is definitely within reach.

After getting the obvious out of the way, it’s time to dissect the lesser players. The dearth of talent at receiver for both ballclubs are quite salient and all of them would be a reach at starters in shallow leagues. No skill player on either side is a must start, except for Johnson. Michael Bush if healthy (recovering from a broken thumb), is a solid RB3/Flex play. Think 60 rushing/15 receiving. McFadden will get his 8-12 carries if Bush can go. Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Justin Gage, Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey, none of these receivers are recommended plays by any means that start two wideouts and only deserve consideration as flex or WR3 plays but you should be better served to look elsewhere. It is pretty difficult to envision any of the wideouts breaking 5 receptions or 60 yards.

The same modest projections go for the men getting them the ball — Jason Campbell and Vince Young. Campbell will be a substantial upgrade over JaMarcus, but clearly that isn’t saying much at all. Campbell’s fantasy value remains unchanged as he moves to the Left Coast, an average QB2 at best. He won’t break 250 yards unless the Raiders are getting blown out (a distinct possibility, but I expect a close game). Vince Young has always made up for his sometimes horrific passing numbers with top notch rushing numbers to scratch out low-end fantasy QB days. Neither Young nor Campbell should be your starting QB unless you play two QB’s.

The Titans team defense has regressed dramatically since 2008 when the team was 14-2. The TD/ST is quite pedestrian and no way would I avoid sitting any players just because it’s the Titans, unlike say, the Jets with Revis back in the fold.

Finally, the weather is going to be a gorgeous 84 degree day, so as is the case with most September football games, the natural elements will have little to no bearing on the outcome and/or favor the passing or the running game more.

Most of you have had your fantasy football drafts already. In fact, many of you have started waivers and or free agent pick ups. I have been immersed in fantasy baseball so until the football season actually begins, football is quite secondary at the moment.

If you are like me, playing fantasy sports is a year round passion. I’m a “3 sport fantasy athlete” and have to prepare my teams for winning as such. I have two very successful baseball teams this season and thus have been consumed with the preparation of the consequent championship runs I’m currently on. The ride has been scintillating yet emotionally draining. Read the rest of this entry »

When the owner in my keeper league was fortunate enough to pick up Stephen Strasburg on waivers, once he became available on CBS’s fantasy site last season. Not only did said owner not have the worst record in the league, he now boasted a rotation of Halladay, Sabathia, Strasburg, Latos, Brett Anderson, Jurrjens, Wandy, Gavin Floyd. Very impressive indeed, especially given how Anderson and Latos have become two of the better young pitchers in real and fantasy baseball. Losing Strasburg for this season and most if not all of next is obviously devastating, but could he have been traded before the worst case scenario? Read the rest of this entry »

An article I contributed to my buddy John’s fledgling fantasy football site, www.ffpharmacy.com

Dallas Clark has been one of the top two tight ends off the board in fantasy football drafts this summer so far (along with Vernon Davis). The 31 year old Clark is coming off of a career season, hitting the century mark with precisely 100 catches, and eclipsing the 1,100 mark in receiving yards and also hit paydirt ten times. Add it all up and the culmination was a very worthy All-Pro selection.

Ostensibly,there are many reasons to draft Clark with a high pick, especially in PPR leagues. The Colts have featured one of the most prolific offenses in the league for over a decade and future HOF QB Peyton is showing no signs of decline whatsoever. Clark more than capably filled the void left by the hasty departure of Marvin Harrison, long one of the best receivers in the game, and along with Manning forming one of the most lethal QB-WR duo in the history of the game. Clark benefited from the attention Reggie Wayne draws as an elite WR and dramatically outproduce his 2009 ADP.

All that being said, I am not really bullish on Clark equally or surpassing his 2009 numbers. My lasting memory of Clark’s 2009 season is his 7 catch finale being so contrived to get him his 100 catches. Unfortunately, I don’t see such theatrics this year to help out his fantasy owners. Secondly, the emergence of playoff hero Pierre Garcon will definitely diminish Clark’s targets this year.

Clark was targeted a whopping 132 times in 2009, behind only Tony Gonzalez. For comparison, Wayne was targeted 149 times in 2009, an average of approximately once more per game than Clark. Needless to say that is going to be an extremely tough trend to sustain. No doubt the number of looks is definitely going to decrease with Garcon becoming more of a traditional No. 2 WR in Indy. And we haven’t even discussed Anthony Gonzalez yet, who is coming off of injury and is looking to get into the mix after some major unfulfilled sleeper status to replace Harrison. The Colts will work Gonzalez in slowly but he definitely has the pedigree to thrive in Indy’s passing game, equaling more bad news for Clark’s 2010 fantasy prospects.

With so many things breaking right for Clark in 2009, it translated to a monster fantasy season. I don’t believe the indicators portend to a repeat performance so it is definitely folly to expect a duplicate season from Clark. The man will still get his, but I think something along the lines of 75 800 6 TD is more prudent, leaving his current 4th RD ADP a bit of a reach.

In third place in my division going into this, trailing the playoff leader by four games with twenty-four remaining, so I am very much in the thick of things. Being in this precarious and familiar position of trailing this late, has me pondering the following dilemma: should I buy (make a dramatic push for a legitimate playoff run) or sell (trade off useful but expendable pieces i.e. Erick Aybar, Bronson Arroyo and make a minor makeover while improving keepers)?

A major characteristic of fantasy keeper league success is Read the rest of this entry »